A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joëlle L. Gergis  Anthony M. Fowler 《Climatic change》2009,92(3-4):343-387

Reconstructions of past climate are important for providing a historical context for evaluating the nature of 20th century climate change. Here, a number of percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A total of 92 (82) El Niño (La Niña) events were reconstructed since A.D. 1525. Significantly, we introduce the most comprehensive La Niña event record compiled to date. This annual record of ENSO events can now be used for independent verification of climate model simulations, reconstructions of ENSO indices and as a chronological control for archaeologists/social scientists interested in human responses to past climate events. Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO reconstruction, approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events (i.e. both El Niño and La Niña phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states. As evidence of stresses on water supply, agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority.  相似文献   

Constraining jet/disc geometry and radiative processes in stellar black holes XTE J1118+480 and GX 339−4     

Dipankar Maitra  Sera Markoff  Catherine Brocksopp  Michael Noble  Michael Nowak  Jörn Wilms 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,398(4):1638-1650

We present results from modelling of quasi-simultaneous broad-band (radio through X-ray) observations of the Galactic stellar black hole (BH) transient X-ray binary (XRB) systems XTE J1118+480 and GX 339−4 using an irradiated disc + compact jet model. In addition to quantifying the physical properties of the jet, we have developed a new irradiated disc model which also constrains the geometry and temperature of the outer accretion disc by assuming a disc heated by viscous energy release and X-ray irradiation from the inner regions. For the source XTE J1118+480, which has better spectral coverage of the two in optical and near-infrared (OIR) wavelengths, we show that the entire broad-band continuum can be well described by an outflow-dominated model + an irradiated disc. The best-fitting radius of the outer edge of the disc is consistent with the Roche lobe geometry of the system, and the temperature of the outer edge of the accretion disc is similar to those found for other XRBs. Irradiation of the disc by the jet is found to be negligible for this source. For GX 339−4, the entire continuum is well described by the jet-dominated model only, with no disc component required. For the two XRBs, which have very different physical and orbital parameters and were in different accretion states during the observations, the sizes of the jet base are similar and both seem to prefer a high fraction of non-thermal electrons in the acceleration/shock region and a magnetically dominated plasma in the jet. These results, along with recent similar results from modelling other galactic XRBs and AGNs, may suggest an inherent unity in diversity in the geometric and radiative properties of compact jets from accreting black holes.  相似文献   

Model-based remote sensing algorithms for particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico     

Young Baek Son  Wilford D. Gardner  Alexey V. Mishonov  Mary Jo Richardson 《Journal of Earth System Science》2009,118(1):1-10

Hydrographic data, including particulate organic carbon (POC) from the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (NEGOM) study, were combined with remotely-sensed SeaWiFS data to estimate POC concentration using principal component analysis (PCA). The spectral radiance was extracted at each NEGOM station, digitized, and averaged. The mean value and spurious trends were removed from each spectrum. De-trended data included six wavelengths at 58 stations. The correlation between the weighting factors of the first six eigenvectors and POC concentration were applied using multiple linear regression. PCA algorithms based on the first three, four, and five modes accounted for 90, 95, and 98% of total variance and yielded significant correlations with POC with R ² = 0.89, 0.92, and 0.93. These full waveband approaches provided robust estimates of POC in various water types. Three different analyses (root mean square error, mean ratio and standard deviation) showed similar error estimates, and suggest that spectral variations in the modes defined by just the first four characteristic vectors are closely correlated with POC concentration, resulting in only negligible loss of spectral information from additional modes. The use of POC algorithms greatly increases the spatial and temporal resolution for interpreting POC cycling and can be extrapolated throughout and perhaps beyond the area of shipboard sampling.  相似文献   

Is the soil moisture precipitation feedback enhanced by heterogeneity and dry soils? A comparative study     

Maximilian Graf  Joël Arnault  Benjamin Fersch  Harald Kunstmann 《水文研究》2021,35(9):e14332

The interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere is a crucial driver of atmospheric processes. Soil moisture and precipitation are key components in this feedback. Both variables are intertwined in a cycle, that is, the soil moisture – precipitation feedback for which involved processes and interactions are still discussed. In this study the soil moisture – precipitation feedback is compared for the sempiternal humid Ammer catchment in Southern Germany and for the semiarid to subhumid Sissili catchment in West Africa during the warm season, using precipitation datasets from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), from the German Weather Service (REGNIE) and simulation datasets from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the hydrologically enhanced WRF-Hydro model. WRF and WRF-Hydro differ by their representation of terrestrial water flow. With this setup we want to investigate the strength, sign and variables involved in the soil moisture – precipitation feedback for these two regions. The normalized model spread between the two simulation results shows linkages between precipitation variability and diagnostic variables surface fluxes, moisture flux convergence above the surface and convective available potential energy in both study regions. The soil moisture – precipitation feedback is evaluated with a classification of soil moisture spatial heterogeneity based on the strength of the soil moisture gradients. This allows us to assess the impact of soil moisture anomalies on surface fluxes, moisture flux convergence, convective available potential energy and precipitation. In both regions the amount of precipitation generally increases with soil moisture spatial heterogeneity. For the Ammer region the soil moisture – precipitation feedback has a weak negative sign with more rain near drier patches while it has a positive signal for the Sissili region with more rain over wetter patches. At least for the observed moderate soil moisture values and the spatial scale of the Ammer region, the spatial variability of soil moisture is more important for surface-atmosphere interactions than the actual soil moisture content. Overall, we found that soil moisture heterogeneity can greatly affect the soil moisture – precipitation feedback.  相似文献   

Role of reservoir regulation and groundwater feedback in a simulated ground-soil-vegetation continuum: A long-term regional scale analysis     

Jianhui Wei  Ningpeng Dong  Benjamin Fersch  Joël Arnault  Sven Wagner  Patrick Laux  Zhenyu Zhang  Qianya Yang  Chuanguo Yang  Shasha Shang  Lu Gao  Zhongbo Yu  Harald Kunstmann 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14341

The regional terrestrial water cycle is strongly altered by human activities. Among them, reservoir regulation is a way to spatially and temporally allocate water resources in a basin for multi-purposes. However, it is still not sufficiently understood how reservoir regulation modifies the regional terrestrial- and subsequently, the atmospheric water cycle. To address this question, the representation of reservoir regulation into the terrestrial component of fully coupled regional Earth system models is required. In this study, an existing process-based reservoir network module is implemented into NOAH-HMS, that is, the terrestrial component of an atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system, namely, the WRF-HMS. It allows to quantitatively differentiate role of reservoir regulation and of groundwater feedback in a simulated ground-soil-vegetation continuum. Our study focuses on the Poyang Lake basin, where the largest freshwater lake of China and reservoirs of different sizes are located. As compared to streamflow observations, the newly extended NOAH-HMS slightly improves the streamflow and streamflow duration curves simulation for the Poyang Lake basin for the period 1979–1986. The inclusion of reservoir regulation leads to major changes in the simulated groundwater recharges and evaporation from reservoirs at local scale, but has minor effects on the simulated soil moisture and surface runoff at basin scale. The performed groundwater feedback sensitivity analysis shows that the strength of the groundwater feedback is not altered by the consideration of reservoir regulation. Furthermore, both reservoir regulation and groundwater feedback modify the partitioning of the simulated evapotranspiration, thus affecting the atmospheric water cycle in the Poyang Lake region. This finding motivates future research with our extended fully coupled atmospheric–hydrologic modelling system by the community.  相似文献   

Access routes to high mountain huts facing climate-induced environmental changes and adaptive strategies in the Western Alps since the 1990s     

Jacques Mourey  Ludovic Ravanel  Christophe Lambiel  Joël Strecker  Mattia Piccardi 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2019,73(4):215-228

ABSTRACT

In the European Alps, high mountain environments are subject to major impacts resulting from climate change, which strongly affect human activities such as mountaineering. The purpose of the study was to examine changes in access routes to 30 high mountain huts in the Western Alps since the 1990s. Data were derived from the use of two different methods, geo-historical studies and a questionnaire, and were used to identify both the climate-related processes affecting the climbing routes and the strategies implemented by public entities, Alpine clubs, guide companies, and hut keepers to maintain acceptable safety and technical conditions. The case studies revealed issues affecting three access routes and the results from the questionnaire showed that the main processes affecting access routes were loss of ice thickness and retreat from the front of the glaciated areas. Commonly, in situ equipment was installed to facilitate access for mountaineers and/or a part of a route was relocated to a safer area. The authors conclude that in most cases, the measures were effective but they were limited by financial, ethical and legal issues, especially in protected or classified areas that could jeopardise their durability and effectiveness.  相似文献   

A Review on Marine N2 Fixation: Mechanism,Evolution of Methodologies,Rates, and Future Concerns     

Bhavya  P. S.  Min  Jun-Oh  Kim  Min-Seob  Jang  Hyo Keun  Kim  Kwanwoo  Kang  Jae Joong  Lee  Jae Hyung  Lee  Dabin  Jo  Naeun  Kim  Myung Joon  Kim  Yejin  Lee  Junbeom  Lee  Chang Hwa  Bae  Hyeonji  Yoo  Hyeju  Park  Sanghoon  Yun  Mi Sun  Lee  Sang Heon 《Ocean Science Journal》2019,54(4):515-528

Ocean Science Journal - Investigations on marine N2 fixation have gained momentum since 1960s with eventual establishments of relevant methodologies to identify species involved and quantify the...  相似文献   

Real Data Assimilation Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) System for a Global Non-hydrostatic NWP model on the Cubed-sphere     

Seoleun Shin  Jeon-Ho Kang  Hyoung-Wook Chun  Sihye Lee  Kwangjae Sung  Kyoungmi Cho  Youngsoon Jo  Jung-Eun Kim  In-Hyuk Kwon  Sujeong Lim  Ji-Sun Kang 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2018,54(1):351-360

An ensemble data assimilation system using the 4-dimensional Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter is implemented to a global non-hydrostatic Numerical Weather Prediction model on the cubed-sphere. The ensemble data assimilation system is coupled to the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems Package for Observation Processing, for real observation data from diverse resources, including satellites. For computational efficiency in a parallel computing environment, we employ some advanced software engineering techniques in the handling of a large number of files. The ensemble data assimilation system is tested in a semi-operational mode, and its performance is verified using the Integrated Forecast System analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is found that the system can be stabilized effectively by additive inflation to account for sampling errors, especially when radiance satellite data are additionally used.  相似文献   

Multiple Random Walk Simulation: A Fast Method to Map Grade Uncertainty with Large Datasets     

Rafael Moniz Caixeta  Diniz Tamantini Ribeiro  João Felipe Coimbra Leite Costa  Péricles Lopes Machado 《Natural Resources Research》2017,26(2):213-221

Multiple Random Walk Simulation consists of a methodology adapted to run fast simulations if close-spaced data are abundant (e.g., short-term mining models). Combining kriging with the simulation of random walks attempts to approximate traditional simulation algorithm results but at a computationally faster way when there is a large amount of conditioning samples. This paper presents this new algorithm illustrating the situations where the method can be used properly. A synthetic study case is presented in order to illustrate the Multiple Random Walk Simulation and to analyze the speed and goodness of its results against the ones from using Turning Bands Simulation and Sequential Gaussian Simulation.  相似文献   

Eye on the Ionosphere     

Jo Ann Joselyn 《GPS Solutions》1999,3(1):79-81

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